Thursday, February 26, 2015

Not Quite the New Yankees

I've penned thousands of words in various columns, and in the comment sections of other folks' columns, in regard to the earth-shaking topic of the disparity of spending in major league baseball.  So here are more words, because, dang, there are never enough.

Through most of the last two decades, the New York Yankees (collective hiss) have been the highest-spending team of the 30 major league franchises and, in many of those years, their total of player salaries has been as much as 50% higher than the second-highest team.  This is the natural consequence of a few factors:
(1) The marketplace in metropolitan New York is huge and flush
(2) There is no cap on salaries, and only recently has there been a luxury tax to place any restraints
(3) The Yankees have had an abysmal farm system for 20 years, forcing them to sign free agents
(4) The late George Steinbrenner's ego refused to let him be outbid for a free agent

While the L.A. Dodgers slightly exceeded the Yankees' payroll last year, the Yankees still have no fewer than seven players on their roster being paid at least $15 million per year (for reference, Boston has four, but none is paid as high as $20 million).

That said, the same Boston club whose president, Larry Lucchino, famously referred to the Yankees as the "evil empire" after they signed a prized free agent escaped from Cuba a dozen years ago, has been spending quite freely this off-season. Lucchino, in fact, had to fend off criticism that he was operating in a very Yankee-like manner.

This criticism came after the Red Sox signed two free agents, third-baseman Pablo Sandoval and (now) left-fielder Hanley Ramirez, and was amped higher when they won the bidding for another Cuban, the 19-year-old Yoan Moncada.

So just how similar have the teams become?

That's quite a fascinating question, because it gets into the guts of the teams' roster philosophies.  Start with the fact that Sandoval, who is still only 28, was signed for five years and will be only 32 his last season, while Ramirez, who is 31, was signed for four years and will be 34 when his contract expires.  Moncada is 19 and likely won't even start his major league career until 2016.

At the same time, the Red Sox declined to approach the offer made by the Chicago Cubs of six years and $155 million for the Red Sox' own homegrown pitcher Jon Lester, through his age-36 season.  Last year they similarly declined to match the Yankees offer to another homegrown Red Sox, Jacoby Ellsbury, through his age-36 season for about the same total salary.

It would seem that the Sox have a red line which, unlike that of the current White House occupant, they actually recognize.  They are not out there giving long contracts into players' age-35 seasons for $20 million.  They come close with Ramirez, but stopped at 34.

And the Yankees?  Well, their seven >$15M contracts look like this -- and by the way, they average $21 million:
Jacoby Ellsbury (37 at the end of his contract)
C.C. Sabathia (36 at the end of his contract, 37 if vesting games are reached)
Mark Teixeira (36 at the end of his contract)
Masahiro Tanaka (30 at the end of his contract)
Carlos Beltran (39 at the end of his contract)
Brian McCann (35 at the end of his contract)
... and, of course, Alex Rodriguez (42 at the end of his contract).

So with the exception of Tanaka, the Yankees have six contracts on the books over $15 million -- they actually average almost $21 million each -- that arguably the Red Sox would never sign.  The four $15 million contracts Boston has include two (David Ortiz and Mike Napoli) which end this year, and the others are Sandoval and Ramirez.  Ortiz is a special case, of course at 39, but his contracts have been essentially short deals at competitive rates; never was he committed to with an expectation of multiple dead years at the end of a long contract.

It is quite arguable that Boston has, in fact, looked at the Yankees roster, not just now, but in 2016 and 2017, and decided that paying free agents for three years of productivity followed by three years of relative geriatric performance, is not a productive use of its revenues.  They have looked at the Tampa Bay Rays, who locked up their younger talent into long-term contracts that are cheaper in the long run.  They have looked at a few teams like the St.Louis Cardinals, whose farm systems have successfully produced talent despite less advantageous drafting positions.  And they have looked at the international market, trying to find talent before an international draft puts it out of reach.

Last year, a season removed from a World Championship, the Red Sox finished dead last in their division and were never close to making a run to respectability.  Yet now, as Spring Training opens, the same team is widely thought to be a competitor to be division champion, even though it neither mortgaged its future by parting with vital talent, nor mortgaged its flexibility by committing to the far-down years of aging stars under long-term contracts.

Their farm system -- especially with Moncada, who is still a year away from the majors -- is universally thought to be a top-5 system in the majors.

No, they're not the Yankees and the comparison is almost as stark as ever.

Copyright 2015 by Robert Sutton

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