Not Tipping One's Hand

So first -- happy to be back moved in and settled, mostly unpacked and all.  Thanks for all the well-wishes and inquiries from readers.

As I wrote this first as a draft a few days back, President Trump was doing a joint news conference with King Abdullah of Jordan, a reliable friend in a Middle East where "friend" frequently means "not a sworn enemy this week", or "the enemy of my enemy."

One reporter asked a perfectly reasonable question about how the president intended to respond to the horrific gassing of innocent citizens in Syria that day.  It was not a particular "What are your tactics" kind of question, but it reminded me that he has indeed been asked, and his representatives have been asked since his inauguration or before, how he would carry out certain military operations.

Those questions have always been asked, because reporters keep pushing the envelope until either they get an answer or the respondent tells them they will not get an answer.  To the everlasting discredit of Barack Obama, he was so willing to appease the press, so anxious to show that he knew something about military strategy and tactics that he hated in the first place, that he showed his hand at the slightest provocation.  Ask the citizens of Mosul, Iraq how that worked out.

I think some may call it "refreshing" that President Trump is repeatedly answering such questions as he did in the debates, to wit, that military strategy does not involve telling your enemy what you are going to do before you do it, and that the element of surprise is, in fact, part of that strategy.

I don't the word is "refreshing", particularly.  I think a better word is "sensible", or rational", or at the very least "non-idiotic."  The president, who campaigned on the idea that winning was actually a good thing (his predecessor had no idea the meaning of the word outside the campaign arena), intends that when we commit our nation's military, we intend to win.  And passing out your approach in nice memos to the people you are trying to kill, well, that is not a reasonable way to carry out military operations.

The good news is twofold.

First, I believe strongly that this is a core belief of this president that will not be shaken.  After all, Obama was the exception; tipping your hand to your enemy is a particularly moronic approach that appears specific to Obama and his ilk, and we can hope that they never ilk the White House again.

Second, we need some winning.  We don't need to go willy-nilly into war to prove our points, but at the moment we are facing a maniacal, fanatical enemy whose deformed culture appears impossible to cure short of the extermination of its adherents.  They need to be wiped out and the military option appears the only way.

I did not hope to see military engagement during this or any administration, but if we do, and if we keep our tactics and strategy to ourselves and our powder dry, it will provide a winning lesson that future presidents will be able, if they choose, to recognize.

So it was with a bit of relish that President Trump must have leaned over at dinner last night with Chinese President Xi, and said something like, "You know, Xi, our mighty naval air forces just leveled a Syrian air base a moment ago.  In case that crazy fat kid you're propping up in Pyongyang tests another missile, he might want to watch, or you may want to have a chat with him.  Would you like more duck sauce with your egg roll?"

Deep breath.

Copyright 2017 by Robert Sutton
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