J .D. Martinez and Me

If ever there were a piece that might be overcome by events before it is published, this is the one.  I'm writing this (yesterday), and as I write it spring training has started for pitchers and catchers, along with some position players who can't wait to get the new season going.

I am a fan of the Boston Red Sox, an aberration since I am not a New Englander of any stripe, but they have been my team since the mid-1950s  While no one can explain such geographically-misplaced fandom, it is what it is.  So I am waiting with bated breath to see who becomes the 2018 employer of J.D. Martinez (update ... still waiting).

Martinez is an outfielder who played mostly for the Detroit Tigers until the middle of last year, when he was traded to Arizona, before reaching free agency in October.  The Diamondbacks would probably like to keep him, and he probably would like to sign there, except for a couple things.

For one, he is an excellent hitter who has gotten better his past couple years, but his fielding is pretty poor.  His skill set would fit well as a DH, except 45 years later the National League still does not have a DH, meaning that he would have to play the outfield regularly for Arizona, and that would be dangerous.

For another, DH is not only an American League-specific job, there is really only one AL team that has a need for a highly-paid DH, and that is the Boston Red Sox.  So wherever Martinez may want to work, there is only one job out there at whatever the maximum salary might be, and that is in Boston.

Martinez's agent, Scott Boras, way back in the fall announced that the market price for his client's services would be seven years and $200 million.  That would be the price, based on Boras's crunching of the numbers to determine his value, at least based on previous contracts for "comparable" players.

Sure, except simple supply and demand laws apply, and previous contracts, issued by different employers, don't.  If the best (or only) fit is with one team, what they are willing to offer becomes the market value for the player's services, not what he wants to be paid.  No one who needs him less will pay him more, obviously.  And Boston has already made him an offer, in the range of five years (guaranteed, mind you) for $110-120 million or so.

Now let's put that into perspective for just a second.  When the Powerball jackpot gets to $110 million, people all over the country dump unneeded dollars into lottery tickets.  I make a decent living, but I will only see a tiny percentage of that amount over my entire career.  Boston has offered that, guaranteed.  And no one else has come close.

So while spring training is several days in already, J.D. Martinez remains unemployed, albeit with a lucrative offer on the table.  That he has not accepted it is curious.

Boras's contention that he is worth $200 million, of course, is based on a market he describes -- that does not exist.  There is Boston, but Boston has said that $110-120 million, whatever they offered, is what he is worth to them.  If he is worth $200 million to someone, more power to them (and to him), but Boston has stated a value, and they have apparently not come off it since it was first presented.

And why should they?  No one else is bidding them higher.  Have you ever seen an auction where the person already with the high bid decides to offer more?  I haven't either.  He is only worth $200 million if someone is willing to pay $200 million.  A cup of coffee is only worth what people are willing to pay -- I'll pay 45-55 cents per K-cup for a box of ones of a flavor I like, but they're not worth 80 cents to me, and I won't spend that.

J.D. Martinez is worth $110-120 million to Boston, and they don't see why, if no one else is bidding close to them, they should raise an already generous offer.  Only they have a need for what he does, and they have put a value on a contract based on the need and what they can afford.

If he does not accept their offer, Hanley Ramirez, a competent major-league hitter, will be the main DH.  Bryce Brentz, who hit 31 homers for the Red Sox AAA team last year, is on the roster and could also DH; like Martinez, Ramirez and Eduardo Nunez, whom the Red Sox just signed, he is a right-handed hitter (they prefer right-hand hitters whose names end in "Z", even if they're German).  That's why Martinez is worth what he is worth to Boston.

Every other AL team has someone to DH or, more often, they simply use their DH slot as a "rest" day for a position player.  J.D. Martinez has far less value to those teams, little more than he would have for an NL team that would have to put his poor glove in the outfield.

Without even getting into the disasters that the vast majority of long-term, nine-figure contracts for players in their 30s have become (q.v. this piece on Albert Pujols), we have to ask what good Scott Boras has done for J.D. Martinez, his client.  Boras totally misread the market, as evidenced by the fact that his client is unemployed as this is written.

By waving around "$200 million", he immediately killed most of the market for his client.  Why? Two reasons. First, of course, maybe half of all teams can commit that kind of salary budget to one player, so they're immediately out.  Then, and as importantly, would you want a player on your team who felt he had to sign a contract for half what he was "worth"?  What kind of morale would that engender?  It's astonishing that Boston would do that, except for the fact that -- wait for it -- they alone had a need for the player.

If only they have the need, then only they, not the agent, set the price.  They have set it and stuck to it, because they are not so silly as to bid against themselves.  At this point, with the player still unsigned and doubtlessly mad at someone, I'm not sure that I would be really happy with him on my team.

But I'll tell you what.  I'm a "free agent" too, as an independent contractor.  The firms that arrange for my services with clients tell me what they're going to pay.  I have a basic consulting rate, but for the most part, I take what I am offered, because that's what I'm worth to the client.  I think I'm pretty good at my job, but my worth is what the clients think I'm worth, so I take it.

And I am busy full time, in contrast to J.D. Martinez.

Copyright 2018 by Robert Sutton
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