Thursday, July 24, 2025

The Russiagate Discovery Made Clear

I don't doubt that a few of you were able to listen to the White House daily press briefing yesterday (23 July) and heard the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, elaborating on recently declassified documentation that provides a seriously upsetting view into actions by former President Obama.

Realizing that the readers of this column are found worldwide in large numbers, and may not have heard the briefing, and may be getting their information from biased, filtered sources, I wanted to clarify some things.

As I was listening to Miss Gabbard speaking, I was thinking of those readers.  I though that perhaps a translation of what she shared, a simple-language summary, might be in order and helpful.  So here goes.

You know what happened in 2016.  Throughout the 2016 campaign, the Hillary Clinton people pushed the narrative that Trump was somehow a "Russian asset", and perpetually tried to connect him to Russia, partly to try to paint him in an unfavorable light to tip the election, and thereafter, when they lost, to compromise his Administration by claiming that the Russians had influenced the outcome and helped Trump win.

There are several overlapping areas we now know, and I want to help you by explaining each one separately.

1. What Russia Actually Did in 2016.

The Democrats claim that the Russians "influenced" or "meddled in" the election. What we now know is that their goal was not to change the outcome; they assumed that Hillary was going to win, presumably because the US media assumed and kept reporting that.  Their goal was, however, to sow chaos by fomenting distrust in the integrity of the election, so Americans would see their cherished election process as suspect.

They did not care who won, so nothing they did was aimed at affecting the outcome. As the actual, reliable Intelligence Community assessments stated, the Russians were utterly incapable of influencing the election itself.  Not only is that hard to do, but with 50 states having separate election processes, nothing the Russians could do had any hope of accomplishing anything. 

They could have done something, though, had they chosen.  They had information that Hillary had been having manic episodes, was on medications, that sort of thing. If they'd wanted to help Trump win, they could have dumped that on the public -- but they didn't.  Remember, their goal was subverting public confidence. Knowing they couldn't change the outcome, they thought a more effective use of it was after the election to make it harder for Hillary, the assumed winner, to govern.  Ironic, eh?

Summary: Russia's goal was to cause chaos.  It was not to change the outcome of the 2016 election, which they couldn't have done anyway. And the CIA knew and reported all that to Obama, so he knew that they had no influence.

2. What the Obama Team Did in December 2016    

Here is the big news, and where potential criminal conduct comes in.  I'll try to make this simple. After the election, Obama received an intelligence briefing telling him all the above, meaning that Russia didn't try to swing the election, that they only tried to subvert Americans' faith in the process, and that they had dirt on Hillary that they held back to use when she got elected, as they assumed.

Importantly, that briefing was factual, was based on sound and standard intelligence-gathering practice, and reflected the inputs from multiple intelligence organizations. In other words, it was extremely reliable. In the normal course of events, it would have been also shared with President-elect Trump.

What it wasn't, though, was good for Democrats who had been trying to paint Trump as a Russian asset.

So Obama ordered the Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, and the CIA Director, John Brennannot to publish that briefing (because then President-elect Trump would be given the briefing) and, instead, to go back and create a replacement briefing that had the content that Obama wanted in there. The analysts who created the factual briefing were told opaquely not to publish because of some "new guidance."

The replacement briefing was, of course, garbage, for a host of reasons.  It had a predetermined outcome.  It did not reflect inputs from across the various intelligence agencies. It was prepared by a small team of hand-picked analysts and a chief writer (who still objected to having their names on a report with no factual basis). Finally, it included already-discredited sources (such as the Steele dossier that the whole intelligence apparatus knew was just opposition research for Hillary's campaign and was full of made-up content).

We know that senior intelligence officials objected mightily to putting out a briefing that was so far below minimum community standards for sourcing and breadth of input. They were shut down. Not only were their opinions squelched, but the new, garbage briefing, was immediately leaked to the media to be splashed all over the news.

We also know that when the writers of the phony report went to back to Brennan, the CIA director, saying there was no factual basis for what they were asked to write, Brennan told them to put it there anyway because "... doesn't it ring true?" The American people rely on their intelligence agencies to provide accurate information for the President to make decisions. "Ringing true" is not what we want our presidents to use to act on.  Yuk.

Summary: Obama knew that there was no real Russian impact on the election; he knew that Trump was in no way connected to Russia, so when the sound briefing telling him that was developed, he squashed it before Trump could see it, and (the potential criminal act) ordered the creation of an essentially phony briefing that pretended to state as fact all the equally phony assertions that the Hillary campaign had been making.

Because this was all done after the election, it can be readily construed as not a political act but a criminal one specifically intended both to give false information to the incoming president and, by leaking it to the media, to diminish the ability of the incoming president to govern.    

We were all there. "Russia Russia Russia" tied up the first Trump Administration.  We were lucky they were able to get anything done at all.

3. The Media and the Government

Media outlets won Pulitzer Prizes for reporting on that story, even though it now turns out that their reporting was abysmal journalism, the result of their being manipulated by political sources on the left. "Russia Russia Russia" sounded so good as a story, and line up so nicely with their political leanings, that they tossed away journalistic standards, forgot about doing simple research, and got rewarded for it by their industry.

On the government side, you had the Schiffs and Swalwells of the world puffing out their chests and lying through their fake indignation. Adam Schiff, as we know, insisted that he had secret information, "factual evidence" that Trump was a Russian asset.  The media gave them plenty of air time, but failed to practice even basic journalism by asking follow-up questions and insisting on answers.

Summary: the Democrats did what Democrats do, but the media tossed aside all sense of objectivity, particularly as relates to the sainted Obama. 

                  - - - 

There are a few ancillary notes here from the last week.  You're hearing Secretary Rubio's name as having been part of a Senate committee back a number of years that appeared not to have dug into the matter deep enough to discover the original, factual intelligence briefing. I believe that was a red herring; the committee can only deal with what they were allowed to see, and as diligently as Obama squashed that sound briefing and hurriedly had a replacement made up with his predetermined content, you can be that the committee was never allowed to know the original even existed.

We also know that there are whistleblowers -- senior personnel who were in the intelligence community back then and who are still there, who were professional enough not to want what happened to stain the honor of their agencies. Their testimony before the House and Senate committees that are sure to take this matter up will be riveting.

Finally, there is the matter of justice. Director Gabbard has referred the whole matter to the Justice Department for investigation.  They will determine if there are criminal charges to be filed, and FBI Director Kash Patel and his team will look into it carefully and speak at length with the whistleblowers and others.

Obama is somewhat protected from charges, either where there is a statute of limitations issue, or in some cases by Supreme Court rulings that a president cannot be charged with offenses during his term if they are related to the scope of his official duties as president. Regardless, he can be forced to testify under penalty of perjury, and sitting there pleading the 5th will not be helpful to his precious legacy.

Personally, I am more interested in the truth coming out and being in some way certified as truthful than I am in seeing Brennan or Clapper or James Comey behind bars, fun though that would be.  But let there be no doubt -- I would very much like to see enough criminal trials and convictions to prevent anyone from trying to pull this type of stunt in the future.

Perhaps the best answer to the Russian subversion of public confidence is to see some jail time for some of the perpetrators. It would sure make me feel a bit more confident.

 

Copyright 2025 by Robert Sutton.  Like what you read here? There are over 1,000 posts from Bob at www.uberthoughtsUSA.com and, after four years of writing a new one daily, he still posts thoughts once in a while as "visiting columns", no longer the "prolific essayist" he was through 2018, but still around. Appearance, advertising, sponsorship and interview inquiries cheerfully welcomed at bsutton@alum.mit.edu or on Twitter at @rmosutton. 

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Has Trump Overhauled the Republican Party?

As I write this, the House of Representatives is debating the One Big Beautiful Bill, and this piece has little, if anything to do with that, mostly.

I have lived through a lot of U.S. presidents.  Harry Truman was in office when I was born, and that means I've experienced about 14 or 15 of them, depending on how you count and when I was old enough to care.

In every case but one, the new president had come in and approached domestic and foreign policy issues in pretty much they same way that his predecessors had, at least those of his party.  Active, passive, high tax, low tax ... same solutions tried whether they worked before or not.

When Donald Trump became president in 2017, he was the first president since Dwight Eisenhower in 1953 to have never served in elected office before becoming president.  He was the first in anyone's lifetime not to have taken a government paycheck of any kind before becoming president, and that's even more relevant.

Donald Trump was a businessman up until the day he was sworn in for his first term, when he was already over 70.  You can guess that business and economics were well-embedded in his approach to problem-solving by the time he said "So help me, God."  

He served a first term the best he could, hounded by the opposition party, lawfare and, frankly, sub-optimal decisions in selecting Cabinet members.  But he learned strong lessons that term about whom he could trust, for sure, and most certainly how to navigate the weirdness of Congress.  By the time he (and we) had to live through the four years of the incompetent Joe Biden presidency, he knew exactly how to go forward, as we'll see in a moment.

In fact, my point in this piece was exemplified at the end of his first term, when he was able to negotiate the Abraham Accords, the treaties between Israel and formerly hostile Middle Eastern nations. He understood as a businessman that the conflict between those nations, which had been fundamentally of a religious nature, no longer held sway as a religious conflict.

President Trump understood that the Arab nations had a common enemy, and it wasn't Israel.  A peaceful Israel held no threat to them -- but Iran did.  Trump saw that what the Arab states' leaders wanted was to hold onto their power, meaning a stable market for oil, a stable economy, and no external threat.  

Those that signed the accords looked at Israel and looked at Iran, and realized that the threat to what they wanted didn't come from Israel at all. Trump go them to see that the clear path to the stability they sought was economic -- and that there was no stronger world power to keep their economies stable than the USA.

Simple?  "Hey, [fill in the blank with an Arab nation], sign this long-term document guaranteeing peace between your nation and Israel, and we'll have a more favorable set of terms for trade with us and, by the way, if Iran threatens you, we'll have your back one way or the other."  Had Trump gotten his second term in 2021, the whole Sunni Middle East would have signed up.

So up comes Trump's second term, only now he has a vice president (J.D. Vance) squarely on his side, and a Secretary of State (Marco Rubio) and Secretary of Defense (Pete Hegseth) squarely on his side, and a Cabinet full of people he can trust.  How does he approach foreign relations?  America first -- implementing tariffs, an economic lever, on nations worldwide as his actual first foreign policy step.

Trump understands that FTM ("follow the money") is the driver for 99% of what goes on in the world. The rest of the world, that has been ripping us off for decades, will not take up arms if we sue for fair trade terms; they'll just come to the table and negotiate, in the outcome will be fair for the USA -- Trump's own country.

Republicans and Democrats alike have never had the cogliones to do that, ever before. "Oh, oh, we can't offend our allies!"  But the Trump Republican Party will have none of that. The other nations can take care of themselves; we are concerned about America first.

And funny how well it worked.  The NATO types have flipped and agreed to pony up 5% of their GDP for their own defense with barely an argument or naysayer.

No president has done that, taken that approach that is so economically based.  But Trump has broken the Republican mold -- ironic given that the Republicans are seen as economically oriented.  He is using the economic leverage of the USA to create a better USA and, by extension, a better free world.

I want to end by pointing out what President Trump said right after he bombed the Iranian nuclear program into oblivion, and how it reflects an approach we have not really seen from the two parties of recent decades.

Consider all the conquering dictators of recent memory.  How did they deal with defeated enemies?  They took them over is what they did, threw out, exiled or murdered the opposing leadership and annexed the territory.

Trump didn't conquer Iran, he just destroyed their threat, with immense credit given to our ally Israel and their destruction of Iran's air defenses.  And what did Trump say thereafter?  He wanted a commercially healthy Iran, he said, and that if they wanted to ship oil to China or wherever, they could go for it.  His vision was of an Iran that was economically successful, even under the same mullahs, as long as it posed no military threat to its neighbors (or us) and ceased threatening other nations.

The mullahs are surely talking among themselves, and at least one of them will likely say the Persian version of "So what if we just be a great Iran and let America work with us and be a trading partner instead of the Great Satan?" And what are the odds that a few others will allow the paradigm to be shifted enough to sit down and work something out that eases tensions in the region?

There is not a president in decades who would even think like that, because to Donald Trump, unlike his predecessors, he sees that economics drive foreign policy as much as domestic.  "Politics" are a distant, bottom-level factor, because he has a vision of an economically successful world.

The Republican Party has the option to allow his policies and his successes to be the foundation of their principles going forward.  If the younger leaders in his Cabinet, who will be the ones to assume the mantle going forward, can maintain that approach, it will be good for the nation as well as the party.

Because the Democrats are still running on "We're not Trump", and when things are working, that's simply not a winning platform. 

Copyright 2025 by Robert Sutton.  Like what you read here? There are over 1,000 posts from Bob at www.uberthoughtsUSA.com and, after four years of writing a new one daily, he still posts thoughts once in a while as "visiting columns", no longer the "prolific essayist" he was through 2018, but still around. Appearance, advertising, sponsorship and interview inquiries cheerfully welcomed at bsutton@alum.mit.edu or on Twitter at @rmosutton.